tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg June 7, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
>> it's 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. where live from bloomberg's asian headquarters. i'm yvonne man. asia." to "daybreak late declines on wall street indicate a lower open in the asia-pacific, futures pointing to a slide in hong kong, japan, and australia. in new york.d the 10-year yield tumbled nine basis point in the matter of minutes. >> i'm ramy inocencio in new york where it is just past 7:00 p.m. on a thursday. z te is moving closer to a deal. aitics say it doesn't deserve second chance, and the administration is firing blanks on china.
president trump critics "great success" in singapore, all this as he could invite kim jong-un to the white house. yvonne, and happy friday to you. it is happy thursday evening for me. looking at the market, it wasn't so happy. it was a risk-off kind of sentiment. i thought i was going to say it's up five days in a row. it was just a hair's breadth underneath. we saw a lot of things happening in terms of yen currencies and emerging-market central banks. yvonne: with been talking to our guests the last several weeks, and for the most part, they said all this volatility is idiosyncratic.
remain see if it can an anchor of stability. ramy: let's go ahead and take a look at the market close right now. let's show how that happened. 500, it's flat, but to the negative side. the nasdaq, giving up the gains we've seen over the past few days, down 7/10 of a percent. -- of 1%. currencies were all over the place. take a look at the u.s. dollar. it actually had been lower than that, but it did pay are of those losses. we can see a little bit of haven buying. of course, the turkish lira and brazilian real. lira, 4.4.
we were saying that the central bank did a surprise rate hike, the third time in two months, to try to support that. sticking to em, a couple of breaking lines on the bloomberg terminal. peru's central bank says it is going to keep its reference rate at 2.5%. -- 2.4%. yvonne: argentina, drawing on the first trench of a loan. this is how we are faring for the asian set up. we are set for some declines. take a look at the nikkei. oing on thisg
friday morning, futures pointing lower in australia as well as the nikkei. -- point toout over 100 points of losses. we're still holding around 129. the aussie drifted lower overnight, pretty much reversing thegain from wednesday, and commodity currencies like the kiwi could be in a rocky road after we saw this renewed pressure in the reality as well as the ruble. the south african rand, unwinding, hitting 13 per dollar and back to december levels just before the president took office. finally, your bond markets, you totioned that flight treasuries.
yields, paring back those declines. we are now back to .2924 the 10-year. europe continues to see those yields had higher before that ep -- ecb meeting. jenna: president trump says he can envision signing a treaty with kim jong-un next week to formally and the korean war an\ she raised the possibility of inviting -- the korean war, and here is the possibly of inviting kim to the white house. secretary of state mike pompeo will hold a debrief in seoul after the summit. trump has set of the stage for a potentially tense g7 meeting this weekend, tweeting, getting ready to fight for our country on trade. we have the worst deals ever made. he goes to quebec with the u.s. increasingly isolated by its
closest allies, who say they will address the issue of tariffs face-to-face. the president laid out the ground rules when he met with japanese prime minister shinzo abe. >> the united states seeks a bilateral deal with japan that is based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity. reverseorking hard to -- reduce our trade imbalance, which is substantial, remove barriers to u.s. exports, and to achieve a fair and mutually beneficial economic partnership. jenna: former fed chairman ben bernanke says the u.s. economy could fall off a cliff. his warning that growth faces a major slowdown as the trump administration's fiscal stimulus starts to fade. he says tax cuts and higher government spending make the fed's job harder all the way around because it is happening at a time of low unemployment. be a wilyays it could coyote moment, just like the cartoon, but it won't be funny.
>> what you are getting is a stimulus at the very wrong moment where the economy is at full employment. under current law, we will see what happens, if it is renewed or not. it's going to hit the economy in a big way. in 2020, wiley coyote is going to go off the cliff, and it will eventually be drawn down. the one jenna: and indeed the investigation is said to be ready to arrest a joe polo, including a former goldman sachs banker. we're told the anticorruption commission has yet to issue charges, and it's not clear if the warrants are being prepared. malaysia says at least $7 billion went missing from 1mdb. global news 24 hours a day on , powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am jenna dragon heart. this is bloomberg.
ramy: thank you very much. asian stocks are set for a lower open after a risk-off session in the united states where treasuries rallied and technology stocks beat a retreat. su keenan has the latest. it started out quite quiet in the green when i checked at the open. su: then it got a little chaotic, and it seems that the tech rally was coming on strong. .e saw a records let's take a look at this snapshot, and what we have again is the s&p 500. zte, what are we talking about? that is the very big story. a deal or agreement to have ziti bigss u.s. suppliers was a boom for qualcomm. it was up almost 4% in the day. about 30% of its revenue from cte, but there is a view by some
, analysts particularly from beacon policy advisors, that globalists and the trump camp were pushing a deal for the qualcomm an merger in china. let's go to the big snapshot, and there you see bonds on the move. theeally was a down day for russell 2000, the broadest measure of the market. the nasdaq, hitting records five years ago. it has come off that a wild ride. let's take a look at some specific tech stocks. facebook down 1.5%. more, as muchbit as 2.5%. 2.5%ix fell as much as wednesday.h record we look at semiconductor and software companies, very large-sized gains.
the lam story is where you have an analyst concerned about delayed product shipments. information tech index was up 14% this year, but the gap is narrowing. tech, falling a bit off its lead path. let's go to the bloomberg. gtd is where you can find these charts. the world of pain. up here, you have global stocks equity growth. there could be some speed bumps to equity growth down the road. yvonne: we haven't gone too far, too quickly when it comes to some of these equities. the commerce secretary wilbur
ross says the u.s. and china have settled on a deal to keep the community in business and company will pay a fine of $1.5 billion and put hundreds of millions more in escrow. it will also change its board and management and retain a u.s.-selected compliance team. let's get to greg sullivan. he's watching the set of d.c. for us. this was one of the key sticking point in avoiding a trade war between the u.s. and china. what are the two sides getting out of this? greg: as you mentioned, the u.s. is getting a substantial fine on theircause of infractions. they're also getting a change in the board and a u.s.-based compliance team with the company. china is getting one of their strategic companies in a strategic sector being allowed to operate. this was a key demand for china for trade negotiations to keep going forward. president xi jinping made a personal plea to trump to help out on this company. they are getting a key demand met in the ongoing broader trade
.egotiations the u.s. could see the approval of a qualcomm merger, which they have been seeking. there is a lot at play, both sides getting something they are seeking. the president, already seeing a backlash on this. we saw president chuck schumer tweeting this out saying, when it comes to china, despite his tough talk, this deal with z proveste the president just shoots blanks. what has been fallout been like in congress? greg: there was that from senator chuck schumer, but also gop senators didn't take too kindly to this. they compared it to steel tariffs, which were imposed in the name of security, saying cte was a bigger security risk. another gop senator in the president's own party saying while zte might make a good
phone, they are a little bit too close to the chinese communist party to his taste. a group of bipartisan senators introduced legislation in the senate to try to block the deal or at least put certain restrictions on lifting zte penalties. ramy: yesterday, we had former investor to china max baucus nefarious word actors. in the meantime, president trump has a lash out at traditional u.s. allies, tweeting again, please tell president trudell and president macron they are charging the u.s. massive tariffs and create nonmonetary barriers. the eu trade surplus with the u.s. is, $151 billion in canada keeps our farmers and others out. i like that positivity there at the end. this doesn't set the stage for something that is more or less than amicable. greg: no.
in fact, it doesn't look like it will be a very amicable summit up in canada. we have seen already there are tensions between other members of the g7 and the trump administration. some pretty serious fellow members. it looks like the long-held g7, a symbolh this of the u.s.-led post world war world, it seems to be frame. +1.looks more like a g6 trump is showing no sign of polling and if his punches as he enters the meeting with u.s. allies. ramy: bloomberg washington reporter greg sullivan, thank you very much. asia,"up on "daybreak we're going to ask a much president trump can realistically expect to get out of kim jong-un ahead of the historic summit in singapore next week. yvonne: that's later on. up next, a look at the biggest
yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." i'm yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: i am ramy inocencio in new york. turbulent asturned a rally snowballed, shaking up trading desks with a sudden flurry of volume. and we can rally in technology stocks was more or less left out. we're joined by andy capron, director of research at region atlantic. looking at all the headwinds, or you? the biggest fir
andy: emerging markets are always a difficult asset class. negative news is so much margaret in that all the positive developments. in the past couple weeks, we've had a lot of news come out against -- about turkey. a lot of potential political instability. what is the good news not catching the headlines yet go one of the biggest items that is going to be a gradual one, chinese shares. indexing is incredibly important. it's becoming more important because of how many folks focus the bulk of their funds into index funds. a legitimate and gigantic stock market focuses our attention. the other news in emerging markets is earnings growth. that is keeping fundamentally every market loft. -- market aloft.
ramy: looking now, inflation is another one of the negatives. that is usually what people want to talk about. in terms of federal rate hikes and wage inflation and eci, things are looking up, and that is having an effect. looking ahead, to what degree is this a concern for you? it is a concern for me, and i think the bond market is a little bit in denial about what is going on. the other thing that is different about inflation -- the past 10 years, analysts were eager to come out. this year different? there are no more inflation watchdogs. nobody in washington cares. nobody cares all that much. it a receipt inflation above 3%. we can get there. i think they are ready to tolerate that. what does that mean? it means 10-year yields below 3%
does not make sense. yvonne: i want to bring it back to emerging markets. it's almost like catching a falling knife,, calling if this route is over or not. we actually have something when it comes to em. they are sliding off their peaks. is there further to reprice at the moment, or are you seeing signs of a bottom? andy: that is actually a very good chart, and it's interesting to study, but it's a little bit unfair and skewed towards the u.s. there's something very different going on in the u.s., tax cuts, massive. the tax cuts represent double-digit earnings growth in their own right before we get to any economic impact. emerging markets don't get any benefit. in general, you should expect forward earnings to drop over the course of the year, and why
is that? the worldall around figured this out. they are good going to wall street, telling them to expect a lot for the next 12 months, expect little next quarter, and they pull a rabbit out of the hat every single quarter. on isk what is going normal. i would only be concerned if the growth estimate turns negative. yvonne: ok. where do you see the opportunities? we see the dollar stabilize a little bit. we see the ecb a little bit more hawkish these days. andy: let's talk about two separate bargains. some of the biggest bargains are in the bond markets. might make a comeback. it's proven to diversify. in the u.s., we have treasury inflation-protected securities. what is great about that investment is today you can lock in yields somewhere in the 0.75.orhood of 0.5 to
that is a real yield. inflation goes on top of that. it is completely realistic to onect well in excess of 2.5% those investments in nominal terms. perspective,equity one of the stocks i like a lot in asia is alibaba. alibaba has gotten some press recently. it hasn't had the wild gains we have seen in u.s. stocks. alibaba gets compared to amazon a lot. there are important ways it is different from amazon. a broader business base come up for one, but the biggest difference, alibaba makes money. that is a big difference, and it's incredibly important. it makes an otherwise expensive stock reasonable. tech seems to have faded a little bit. director of research at regent atlantic, joining us from new york. here's a reminder to always be careful what you post.
ramy:ramy: the senate intelligence committee wants the ceos of facebook, google, and twitter to answer questions about the security of their platforms, including their relationships with china. sarah frier has been following all of this. sarah, talk to us about the concerns from these senators. sarah: fresh off in targeting facebook about another data scandal, senators are on to the next one. this time, it has to do with these device data partnerships. to get aases, in order more native experience on phones and an easier experience, they
may be able to let of these device manufacturers make devices on their behalf, on behalf of facebook and twitter. these deals are being scrutinized. ei the u.s., we consider huaw to be a national security risk, and there have been concerns about them among other chinese device makers. they want to know about what exactly these partnerships entail. sarah, facebook, just to make matters worse, we learned thishave admitted to software bug that's at the audience for people's posts to public, even if users intended to show them as private. its another indication that facebook can't keep control of these privacy issues. sarah: facebook said today 14 million people, it may have affected them for about 10 days in may. the one thing i will say about
this, we have seen case after case of facebook only telling the public about problems once they come to light in the media. in this case, facebook is being upfront about what happened with this 14 million people's posts. yvonne: it is certainly going to be a big question there. why are they not taking a more proactive approach, sarah? are letting all these users know what happened. hearing, whatever the hearing might be later this year, the privacy situation with the china relationship, we're expecting to hear back from facebook on the more than 2000 questions congress had after mark zuckerberg's testimony. would turn in those questions by the end of the week. i will be pouring through all of that reading. ramy: it's going to be a lot for the weekend.
yvonne: 7:30 a.m. friday in hong kong. wayre not just 30 minutes from asia's first major market open. not a good time when it comes to the are here. ramy: i see that hong kong has issued an amber rainstorm warning. it is 7:30 p.m. thursday in new york where markets closed just under the flatline because of the em, fears percolating into market. i am ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: i'm yvonne man in hong kong. let's get to the first word news with jenna dragonheart. administrationp
is stirring the pot ahead of this weekend's g7 in quebec. the president lashed out at irnada and france over the tariffs on steel and aluminum. the summit is set to be the most acrimonious and years and has been described as the g6+1. critics of president trump say a deal to lift sanctions on phone maker zte shows he is firing blanks on china. democratic leader chuck schumer says there is no reason for giving the chinese company's second chance, and news that a deal is close is a 180-degree turn by the white house. $1 is said to be paying billion and placing another $400 million in escrow, all to escape a seven-year ban on u.s. tech purchases. says it has reached a deal
with argentina for $50 billion in loans over 30 years and exchange for what it calls fiscal consolidation. the government has agreed to a primary deficit target this year of 2.7% with a cpi target of 17% next year. the imf says the deal is still subject to executive board approval. president putin has acknowledged .ussia's economic disconnect he insists is the country is moving in the right direction. his annual call-in show was marked by the contrast between the president's habitual update report and his sometimes desperate tone -- the sometimes desperate tone of his questioners. >> speaking in terms of black and white, i would say we are moving in the direction of sustainable white, but even in nature, you never see anything purely black or white.
even in the arctic, there are gray and black spots. have, but on the whole, we are moving in the right direction. jenna: china is trying to globalize its $11 trillion bond market, but it is hitting dual headwinds. international borrowing costs are climbing just as beijing works to reduce financial leverage that has contributed to defaults by 12 bond issuers this year, compared to 18 with the whole of 2017. 11 of those have been private companies, while one was a state-owned enterprise. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am jenna dragonheart. this is bloomberg. yvonne: we're counting down to some of the major market opens in the asia-pacific. let's go to so victim rudin. em, continuing with this volatility. >> yet another wrench thrown into the works.
i want to show what is going on with south africa in particular. the rand weekend for the first time since december. investors are betting the central bank will not follow em peers in hiking rates. rand weakness, that reflects a broad repricing of assets within the context of rising u.s. rates. as you can see, the selloff in ef equities, the line is white. that is not as bad. em stocks have seen a recovery of late. for now, sentiment is very much the enemy.
yvonne: start with the selloff in em. investors must be hunting for bargains. there is still some value in some of the em plays. >> they are headed towards the -- bargain basement. goldman sachs are saying they like bonds. jpmorgan, saying they like indonesian that, and investors should -- i want to show you this chart. chinese stocks, looking cheap, trading below those of em peers. we are also seeing this being the case for the south african rand. it has lost nearly 10% since late february, and morgan stanley say it is probably oversold. this indicator is flagging that to be the case. with this backdrop, let's check in on futures in asia, stocks in the region. in the u.s., treasuries rallied
and tech stocks fell. the gdp report, expected to improve but remain in ory territory. ever core, enthusiasm for chip equipment makers. this a bit on the plate friday. yvonne: a busy day before we get to the weekend. sophie kamaruddin, thank you for checking the markets. ramy: the imf is throwing a lifeline to argentina. another emerging market economy whose currency has been pummeled, as traders react to inflation, rising budget deficits, and the certainty of more federal rate hikes. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays is here. what is true in this argentine a deal with the imf? : the currency is just getting destroyed.
this is a $50 billion standby arrangement to help restore investor confidence at a time when the currency has been pummeled, when rates have had to be pushed through the roof, and our bloomberg news story says it is supposed to last three years. depending on how much they have to tap, it could be one of the biggest imf deals of all-time. you can see how serious the situation has gotten. has agreed to set new targets for inflation and their fiscal deficit, but let's look at a bloomberg chart now. rate hikes, remember? it was just a month or so ago. they failed to stop the climb of the peso. you can see the blue line. way up here, it kind of looks like another chart we are going to see on turkey, and you can see how the peso did finally stabilize. move. let's quickly go to their neighbor, brazil. ae brazilian real has been in
freefall. the brazilian government has had to step in and sell swaps, a foreign exchange swap, as a way to try to weaken the dollar. with the inflation rate going up, they've got budget deficit problems. all of this has been happening. forreal continued to tumble a third straight day, even a central banks go up even more. a 16% plunge versus the dollar since march, second only to the weakness in the dollar and -- guess what -- the argentine peso. yvonne: we've got to talk about turkey, as well, big day for the central bank. do think this was enough, this rate hike, to rescue the turkish lira? >> that remains to be seen. people were saying, it's the right move, this gigantic rate 125 basiso 17.75%,
points, and the lira is facing what other currencies are facing toward the dollar is rising, and in turkey, their trade and budget deficits are rising. let's see what happened in the wake of this very large rate hike with another bloomberg chart from our bloomberg library. look at the plunge in the turkish lira. you can see how they rate hike did help. you can also see how the rate has had to go up so much. this is the end of april. what are leeco early june. over that time, the key rate has been more than doubled, 8% to nearly 18%. what are we going to look at next? will president erbakan, now allowing the central bank to make this move, does it show that he is excepting central bank independence. we shall see. the next test will be the
election on june 24. yvonne: kathleen, thank you, kathleen hays, our bloomberg economic and policy editor. to theounting down latest check from the japanese economy. the economy recorded its first contraction in nine quarters, and we are seeing if these resign just that revised numbers will change that narrative. we did talk about this nine-quarter streak we've seen, the biggest coming out of japan. we will see if it changes much. also, inventories in the first quarter. software, wasde unchanged in the first quarter,
falling 3.2%. in inventories, as well, slightly less. perhaps you can see a little bit of upward revision. we could still be a negative territory. ramy: there are some growing analyst recommendations or analysis at least saying that moving ahead of this year might turn positive and there are a lot of headwinds. i bring this up as part of a larger context in terms of estimates for private consumption. we are expecting that to be unchanged. domestic demand, we are expecting that to contract 0.2% for the quarter. these numbers, not getting a boost. if you look to the left side, the 30-year average for retail sales is just 0.5%.
one saving grace, i have to say, before we had to break his business spending. we are expecting that to jump up a little bit. again, 0.2%, not that much. yvonne: a little help from the fed as they continue on this rate-hiking path. does this week and the dollar-yen and now for the yen enough for them to ease off a bit? coming up next, we are going to talk about gdp numbers coming out of japan. trump is confident it will be a productive one. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: president trump says he and kim jong-un could formally end the korean war with a peace deal in singapore. however, he says he also has a plan b if talks don't go well. hundreds of more sanctions on pyongyang. let's get to stephen engle. he will be at the summit, as will i. buildup ofut how the this summit -- it seems like it has gone to kind of a fever pitch. there are so many unknown, and we aren't sure which way this is going to go. stephen: it's unlike any other leadership summit. the deliverables are not in place before hand. it could either go this way, or it could go this way. we are getting donald trump overnight saying he doesn't have to prepare for this. it's all about attitude.
is probably being facetious, he has prepared, but on the one hand, you have trump saying they've been working and talking with north koreans about signing a peace deal, and in the korean war. the tough part could lead to a walk out on either side, the denuclearization timetable. how hard and fast will the two sides be pushing their various viewpoints? trump says if the talks don't go well, he has a list of 300 or so additional sanctions. >> president trump and chairman kim will discuss security assurances for the dprk, establishing a piece regime and improving relations between our countries. the measures that the world has
put on the regime will remain. in the event diplomacy does not work in the right direction, these measures will increase. stephen: still, trump is predicting great success, and it could lead to a summit at mar-a-lago or the white house. ramy: the white house might trump mar-a-lago. and donald trump, standing side by side, having met again p the word that comes to mind is alignment. i think should's said that through translation. donald trump, really back in him. stephen: shinzo abe was the first world leader to go to the white house when donald trump was elected, and he's the latest to go to the white house. he's trying to shore up the security lines between japan and the united states, and he wants assurances that japan's interest, not only with north korea's icbm's, he wants to get assurances that kim jong-un is going to dismantle those medium-range missiles of course,
he wants trump to push hard on the japanese of duct -- ab ductees. yvonne:yvonne: let's bring in bruce bechtel in santa ana, california. he is the author of several books on north korea. thanks for joining us. we've been talking about how leading up tong these talks in singapore. what would be a success for president trump coming out of this? bruce: that is a great question, and i think the most important thing we could factor in is, will he get the north koreans to definitively agree that they are going to dismantle -- not freeze -- dismantle their nuclear program and have the specific methodologies and a timeline that they can do so? it's going to be important when measuring success of that unless or until that timeline is
completed, we and our allies keep up the economic pressure that brought the north koreans to the talks in the first place. yvonne: there's also this issue of long-term security, and you wrote extensively about not just the fact they are building up their nuclear arsenal as a threat to their neighbors, but also when it comes to proliferation of weapons by rogue nations like iran and syria. how can the u.s. administration and sure that this proliferation is contained yet go -- contained? >> that is a very tough thing to do. get the u.s. can do is allies on board with us. we have to go after the financial networks. they are not just in china. they are in places like vietnam and singapore and malaysia. go after those banks. go after those front companies. when i talk about pressure on
north korea, that kind of pressure is not or you can throw some sanctions out. you have to continually updated the sanctions, as president trump has said, and you need to enforce those questions -- those sanctions. it means a bank can't do business with united states. its designated a state sponsor of terrorism. it will take constant upgrading and maintenance of sanctions to keep the pressure on north korea, even as we agree to dismantlement. the pressure cannot end until the dismantlement has transparently occurred. yvonne: hold on a second. i have to break some data coming from japan, the first quarter gdp numbers, the final numbers coming up, and the revision, unchanged from what we saw percent, at 0.2 seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter.
coming in worse than expected, wen 6/10 of 1%, the same as saw from the earlier estimates. consumption, also missing estimates. still, sticking to the course. ramy: let's pick back up with bruce. you were talking about keeping the pressure on. donald trump was saying pressure, but he was saying we don't have to use it now. massive sanctions could still be done. the tablethose be on now in order to get this deal done with the north koreans. >> one would hope so. what the president has said in the past is the maximum pressure effort will remain in place until the north koreans denuclearize. that is very important. you can't get to things i've
written about like proliferation or human rights or dismantling conventional forces on the korean peninsula unless or until they dismantle their nuclear why it is that's important to not only put these sanctions on as we discover entities that are supporting these rogue state activities, but to keep maintenance on those activities so pressure remains on north korea. ramy: in terms of the process, the word verification has to be part of this. we saw the dismantlement of some sites in north korea, but journalists were not allowed to check it out. walk us through the process of what needs to be done if this were to be a success. first of all, it's important to know that there is past precedent for this with the bush administration in 2007 and 2008. the problem is the north koreans would not let us go to the sites that we wanted to go to to
verify they were actually dismantling their nuclear program. that is what ended up killing the whole process. this was right before obama came in as president. this time, it's going to be important to ensure that the dismantlement occurs at the sites of our choosing so the north koreans aren't hiding many aspects of a nuclear site or callista listed missile site capable of carrying nuclear weapons. that has to be done first. view on this is to try to slow this process as much as possible. movingexpect to see them equipment and materials around from site to site as we are inspecting these sites. to keepething we need in mind. every other administration before president trump has failed at dismantling or containing north korea's nuclear weaponization activities. yvonne: you've written a lot about iran, as well.
now that the u.s. has withdrawn from the steal, do you see parallels between that and how negotiations are going to go with north korea this time? bruce: i do. that is a great question. you obviously did your research. the jcpoa agreement reminded me of the agreed framework that originally occurred in 1994 between north korea and the other three nations along with united states about freezing but not dismantling the nuclear program. obviously, the iranians and north koreans are very close, and the iranians understand if your program is frozen but not dismantled, at your convenience, you can always go back to it, which is what the north koreans did in 2002.
ramy: bruce, i want to bring in china here. it also seems like they are taking a little bit of a backseat, watching what happens with south korea, japan, the united states. druthers, what would you want to see for china to show that they really mean business to try to get north korea to some kind of deal? bruce: great question. it's a very easy answer. the way china can prove to us that they want to truly move this deal along is by keeping the pressure on north korea's economy themselves. even verbally agreed to these heavy sanctions imposed by the u.n. -- they sit on the security see many anecdotal instances of them violating sanctions, both for oil imports, imports of luxury items, etc. they can prove to us they are serious about this deal by putting an end to all of that. helpful inrtainly be
us working together to bring north korea to an actual state of dismantlement of its nuclear weaponization program. ramy: over on the washington side, donald trump has been known to say that he doesn't need prep for this. when i saw that, i thought, it would be nice to do that, but he's a dealmaker, as he says, and maybe he doesn't need to do this. what are your thoughts on that? bruce: i would hope that at the very least he has been briefed on all of the failures that have come before him. in the bush administration, they put tough pressure on the north koreans around 2005 that brought them to the bargaining table a year and a half later, but when they got to the bargaining table, they gave everything away to the north koreans.
in the end, we got nothing. one would hope that donald trump has been briefed on the problems of the agreed framework, the problems of the six-party talks, and the problems experienced during the obama administration. if donald trump understands all of those things that have occurred in the past, he should , whereand what not to do he can take the north koreans seriously and where he cannot. ramy: respect all, thank you so much for your analysis. count them, four days until singapore. yvonne: we are counting down the market open in japan. we are going to have to react to some of those gdp numbers. of course, what we heard from the initial preliminary numbers, in a contracting mode.
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>> 8:00 a.m. here in hong kong. i am yvonne man. daybreak: asia. futures point to a slide in hong kong come at japan, and china. volumes flared in new york. the 10-year yield tumbling. bloomberg's global headquarters, i am andy. a is just past 8:00 p.m. on thursday. growth estimates in the first quarter adding to the government struggles. consumption also fell. president trump predicts great success in singapore. he could invite kim jong-un to
the white house. >> already a busy friday for us. as well.e g7 it argentina getting a loan from the ims. g tv is where you find this chart. we are basically just treading water. we are going anywhere as far as global stocks. we still holding off on a lot of things for next week after singapore but for the feds. ahead to also looking what is happening in the g7 and canada. donald trump just recently tweeted that he called trudeau
indignant about the stairs. definitely, tensions when it had good when you're talking about the emerging markets, that list of countries is definitely getting longer each day. g7 looking more like a high school drama. happening here in asia. sophie has more. overe: that's talking playing out in asia -- stock over playing out in asia. sparking the fears. treasury yields plunged sharply. the aussie is also being swept in the downturn did it 76. that could trigger for the losses. breaking a six-day crime, paul and beth hello the 130 handle. this is a young, it holds below 110 after trump express cautious
skepticism. japan, we are seeing site losses for the nikkei 225. given the move in the yield space. we also have the final gdp reading showing the economy may have hit air pockets in the first quarter. certainly, some negative catalyst for japanese markets today. great stuff. checking the markets there. in the meantime, let's look to rather, let'sw or he literally doing? -- let's see what are we doing? we are going to first word. president trump says he and kim jong-un could formally and the korean war with ap steel next week in singapore. we are doing first word right now. let's get the first word news right now.
the imf said they stand by argentina. in exchange for what it calls fiscal consolidation. this is the marketing government has agreed to a primary deficit did -- primary deficit. 13% in 2020. the imf says the deal is still subject to approval. chairman, says the u.s. economy could fall off a cliff. he is warning of a major slowdown is he trump administration stops. he says the pay cuts and higher government spending makes the fed jobs harder your on because it is all happening in a time of no unemployment. bernanke says it could be a coyote moment.y >> you're getting a stimulus at the very wrong moment.
you're getting hit by a big stimulus which under current law, we will see what happens. under the current law, it is going to hit the economy in a big way. the020, the wiley coyote going to go off the cliff and look down. that will essentially be withdrawn at that point. >> critics of president trump say they could lift sanctions. democrat leader chuck schumer says there is no reason for giving the chinese company a second chance. news that a deal is closed at the 180 degree turn by the white house. paying $1aid to be million and facing another 400 million to escape. international borrowing conflicts as beijing work serious leverage.
that contributed to people. compared to 18 for the whole of 2017. 11 of those have been private companies while one works to define. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more i'm haslindantries, the country's economy contracted a worse than expected .6% of the first quarter from the year earlier with private consumption also disappointed. policy editor kathleen hays is here. cap lane, tell us about what actually read -- draft growth down. >> they have low unemployment. consumer spending did slowdown. that was probably one of the main reasons the economy so done. we did have that little bump but let's take a look at why it is so disappointing.
we were talking about this chart in the last hour. here you have this 0.6 contraction after nine quarters of growth. this is what has led many people , including the prime minister to say, this policy, our abenomics are working. we get a little bump in the road, with a bounceback? if we move on to think about that aspect of the story, we have to think about exports. exports are such a big driver of the u.s. economy. that is one reason why prime minister of it with trump is so important. it is not just about the summit, it is about working on a bilateral trade deal. that was also news from japan. i want to share a chart because as you could see, you could see a good thing in the second quarter. the white bars are industrial production.
the blue bars are merchandise trade exports. if you look at the first three months of the year, it started an industry of production came down, exports came down, industrial production has not picked up billy as much as exports have the here and i think that is another reason why second quarter is going to get back on track. this is kind of an air pocket when it comes to growth in japan? >> i think it is going to be a subject of conversation. there is so much going on. we have been talking about federal reserve so much but we've been talking about the bank of japan as well. get on the we outlook for inflation and growth are very important. nikkei news is reporting that they boj seeing some disappointing price news in inflation in the last month, they may actually be bringing .own their inflation forecasts
i think that would be a signal of more realistic sense of just how long it will take to get japan's inflation higher particularly, if we do not see growth moving higher. >> we sue those numbers from april that were not too strong as well. were just talking about, the singapore; president trump saying him and conjunct room could formally and the korean war with a peace deal next week. he however, he also has a plan if talks do not go well. we have been talking about the summit and the buildup. do you believe it feels like anything we have seen recently? steven: we do not have the deliverables already set up. we are going to go in there and according to trump, see what the attitude is. he says he does not have to prepare that much for the summit because the first few minutes are really going to dictate how
the talks are going to go. tipped off orget are they going to go to the off. we do not know. areasically said that they willing and that he is been discussing with the north korean possibly, signing this peace treaty to formally and the korean war. part, is going to get aose commitments and timetable for denuclearization and whether they agree on that. he probably says, it is going to take a few meetings, a few summits. it could be upwards of five different meetings and even potentially, the white house. well, if it does not go if i start talking maximum pressure campaign, that is indication that talks are not going well and they have at the tody, 300 new sanctions impose on north korea.
this is what mike pompeo had to say about that. >> president trump and him will also discuss security assurances. until we achieve our goals, the measures of the world alongside the united states has put on the regime, will remain. in the event, diplomacy does not move in the right direction, these measures will increase. 9:00 a.m. on tuesday is when they are about to meet. with that said, we have had analysts that have said we do not expect anything to come out of this. also, you mentioned shinzo abe meeting donald trump in washington. the word is alignment to try to get both of them together. iny really did do a lot terms of getting their ducks in a row here. >> shinzo abe was the first world leader to go to the white house.
he wants to make sure that japan security concerns over north korea are also addressed. though shorter range missiles that could hit japan. stephen: of course, shinzo abe has campaigned and in a hawk against against north korea which helped him later on last year in the polls but again, his puppy later -- popularity has said for other reasons. he is pitching his wagon to donald trump. this is what he had to say about what he and donald trump talked about. >> we took a good amount of time and carried out into a candid exchange of views. i am not able to talk about the details of what we discuss but one thing i can say is that japan and the united states are always together. >> one of the issues that's shinzo abe has been pushing is north korea. he wants to have donald trump have it high on the agenda. donald trump says he will absolutely bring that up with kim jong-un next week. anchor: watching that life, i
swear he was saying that he was concerned with much more than denuclearization. our north asia correspondent, thank you very much. still ahead, we will dig into the deals that the united states has made to keep china's in business. yvonne: the latest eco-numbers out of japan. bank of singapore chief economist. this is bloomberg. ♪
ramy: and i'm remy inocencio in new york. the yen weakened slightly right now. it fell an annualized .6%. worse than expected. think of singapore chief economist. you, do youto ask think we will see some more positivity moving ahead this year? after these negative numbers, what are your thoughts? i do not think people are particularly worried about japanese gdp numbers. if you look historically, there is a variable. more reliable suggests that it the economy is grinding along at a fairly slow-paced but without any real concerns over a fundamental downturn in the growth that.
-- cap. -- path. ramy: looking at the specific numbers, business spending, we were expecting that to be a little bit more on the upside there. what are your concerns with private consumption? private consumption is always tough. struggle toes measure this reliably but in japan's case in particular, the quality of inputs into the calculations are really very poor. they've been trying to fix this but it is a real struggle for them. you look at the labor market in japan, you have got something like 15-16 job vacancies for every 10 people looking for work. there is clearly a very tight labor market. you are beginning to see which is moving up as well. i think in that environment, consumption is struggling. there is much more likely that
there is a problem in the data. consumers are not dancing in the streets for joy but at the same time, they are pretty comfortable. in that environment, you would expect through the course of six months, the consumption numbers going up fairly decently. yvonne: is there a enough momentum. that we have seen in the last nine quarters to boost inflation. we have seen which numbers pick up. april resolve in the bit as well. problem.s a big markets, despite the long. of growth, a lot of signs of growth are capacities in the system. there's really not much pressure. as he said, the numbers of the -- have sock and. they really have done all they can. they have done an exceptional
policies. they have tried to guide expectations. realistically, the traction they are getting is very moderate. i think that tells you after two decades of deflation, two decades of really port central bank policymaking, it is very hard to change things. i guess we are lucky that japan is an exception on the side of things. really, japan is in a much bigger role than anyone else. yvonne: yvonne: next week is pretty pivotal. not just with what is going on in your and -- and but we have g7. which is more important for the boj? be the fed.t has to the hope from japan's point of view is that the fed keeps tightening as the differential
widens. is back to 100. it goes 100. they have nothing left. result, the bigger gap you could put between the u.s. and japan, the more comfortable they will be. they really run out of options. ramy: looking at what is of fedng with the face hikes. how is asia really standing up right now? we have seen some central banks raising their rates right now. asia already looks a lot less honorable. -- are the countries of
fairly well managed in terms of public policy in general. case, theyonesia's have been proactive. they have raised rates twice. as a result, we are fairly relaxed about asia. they do not have fundamental problems and also, the policy making seems to raise rates it was well. he seemed to be proactive enough to dodge most of the excess coming out of asian markets. the fed is want to raise rates every quarter. it is only going to get worse for you. ramy: is jay powell right in staying the course and over looking the risks we see? this contagion risk seems to be piling appear in the likes of argentina, turkey, and brazil. does the fault then, like in
central banks to raise rates? feds are pretty clear that they are making policies for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policies to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. there their own problem and they need to fix it themselves. the increased pressure on a few countries, they did improve the policy management and as a result, there has been less stress on them this time around. the emerging markets, there are always going to be some countries battling with the wrong priorities are the wrong information given to the policymakers. there's nothing new about that. you look at argentina, you had turkey, realistically, the list is short and -- short.
yvonne: indonesia is being very proactive when it comes to raising interest rates. is it enough to extend the rates? case, itk indonesia's is. indonesia has a small deficit. the economy is growing 5%. they are importing capital. i think they have shown a sensitivity to the rates and they have a fairly safe. india is a little bit more of a concern. inflation seems to be more of a problem there. for domestic reasons, you could make an argument that they need to be going more aggressively. at the same time, it is a relatively closed economy. it is not a big deal for india. stresses areof the
really going to be outside of asia and latin america. the sort of is more exposed to us. yvonne: thank you richard. chief economist from the bank of singapore. you can get a roundup of the stories that you need to get your day going. just go to daybreak go under terminal. it is also available on the app. customize your settings. the g7 picture speaks for itself. this is bloomberg. ♪
airline profits will slide this year as expenses for jet fuel and staff rise. carrier is in the a good place and has better prospects in its european competitors. deutsche bank is said to have spoken to shareholders about a merger. yvonne: we are turned the chairman has discussed the idea with leading investors and key government officials. no formal talks are underway. a tie up is not imminent. they discussed the deal two years ago but nothing came out of it. airbnb has frozen much of its operation in japan at the request of local regulators. rules require host to register with local authorities and airbnb had warned host they would do this those who fail to comply. 15 but thee was june
yvonne: 830 in singapore. t minus five days before the singapore summit between president trump and kim jong-il -- kim jong-un. i'm yvonne man in hong kong aired. ramy: you are watching daybreak asia. let's get the first word news now. the trump administration is stirring the port ahead of this weekend's g7 summit heard the president last out to canada and france on twitter over the tariffs. countries are at fault
and to blame for the measures. the summit is set to become the most ceremonious in years and it has already been described as ag six blocks one. present trump has set the stage for a tent g7 summit this weekend. getting ready to fight for trade". he will address the issue of tariffs face-to-face. the president laid out the ground rules when he met the japanese prime minister shinzo abe appeared >> the united states seeks a bilateral deal with japan that is based on the principle of fairness and prosperity. we are working hard to reduce our trade imbalance which is very substantial. remove barriers to u.s. exports. to achieve a fair and mutually beneficial economic partnership. president trump says he can
envision a treaty with kim jong-un next week to end the korean war and he raised the possibility of inviting can to the white house. trump predicted great success from the talks which will be the first time a sitting u.s. president has met a north korean leader. secretary of state mike pompeo, will hold a brief meeting in seoul after the summit. links to china. the senate intelligence committee says it will called meetings between facebook, google, twitter, and others and chinese firms. there is a possibility that documented toeen access user data and that raises serious national security concerns. to bevestigation is said ready to arrest to others including a former goldman sachs
banker. we're told the and take front commission have issued charges and it is not clear why the warnings are being delayed. billions of dollars went missing and u.s. prosecutors per trade the embezzlement scheme. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more this is countries, bloomberg. yvonne: dell it is time to see how the asian markets are shaping up this morning. drifting.tocks are ares over the space stumbling. the korean won is back to about 1070. commodity economies are taking a at it the aussie should hit low 76. that could trigger more losses. check out the reggae, it is fighting for a fourth day. gain.is set for a weekly
depending on what opec may do. the equity space, cosby is leading losses. the nikkei ben's again after a four-day rise. real estate is leading declined in tokyo but there are some bright spots to be had. fujifilm is rising for the seventh straight day. the ceo thinks they may walk away from a xerox deal. the price is too high. express jump in the most since last year. raised.k was the shares have rallied over 50% this year even as global transportation companies may have been affected by these on entree concerns. in sydney, aurizon is losing ground. they've changed their maintenance practices that may
affect call delivery. -- coal delivery. ramy: let's go to china now. the u.s. has reached a deal to allow chinese telecom firms to get back in business. overcoming a key hurdle is the two countries definitely try to avert the trade war. china correspondent joins us from beijing with the details. walk us through what has been agreed on so far. i would just recap. this is the telecom companies that violated a deal around sanctions with north korea and iran. the way that they responded to the violation. they were frozen out of accessing u.s. technology. what the commerce department as come along it said is that they agreed that there is a deal of about $1.4 billion. they will change the management of release, the company has
agreed to change the management. there will be a compliance team facen place and they will a tenure probationary. . -- probationary period. they want to change the behavior of this chinese company. that is the most severe company -- penalty that the u.s. has administered on a private company. you heard from the likes of chuck schumer saying that essentially, president trump was firing banks -- blanks. marco rubio, the senator from florida, pointing out the irony that the trump administration is hitting the likes of europe and canada with tariffs. nationalat that is a security concern but eventually, letting him off the hook. >> trade talks could move forward now but also, the supplier, and china is overseeing a potential deal. they may now speed along with
that process here in beijing. analysts say they expect it to start training again than 2-3 weeks. interesting to see the dichotomy between allies and competitors. this comes as a kind of thawing of the ice as china has also restated that they are willing to ramp up the exports from the u.s.. the latest thing there is if they are unable to do that, they are not going to be able to get the gdp issue together with regards to the $350 billion deficit. they are definitely trying to get that shorter. so we heard from the ministry of commerce here in beijing yesterday again saying, we are
planning to increase our imports from the united states but over the weekend, with commerce secretary that was in beijing, they had detailed talks around agriculture and energy imports. there have been reports but china has agreed to increase imports by 25 billion. the u.s. demand is over 300 billion. that is an another indication that the chinese are serious about their pledges to increase the imports from the united states. of course, with the chinese is also said is that if trump was to go ahead with these tariffs after june 15, then, of course, all bets are off. signalse, it is another that china is working and prepared to work on increasing imports from the u.s.. ramy: yvonne: these trade tensions a highlight on the deficits of china this morning. what can we expect? >> we are expecting exports to be relatively strong. than in theter months of april but still, a
strong number for for april. exports are going to be strong. we are also expecting imports to pick up by about 18%. another strong number of cores. the trade balance is expected to $33 billion. we have a terminal which shows the export import pictures since a 14. the export and import are at the bottom of the chart and the blue is the trade balance. what you saw was a big help in wards the endrts to of the year. we saw a deficit in march. it has been up again. as you point out, this is clearly in focus. this obsession by president trump on the deficit, the $257 billion deficit with china. that is why it becomes an even more important data point. yvonne: joining us from beijing. thank you.
after a $4.3 billion ipo. they are looking for a piece of the blockbuster action. they may be out of luck. the spring and the opinion columnist who has a view for us. -- let's bring in the opinion columnist who has a view for us. >> is a thing you really need to look at. this is all on the perspective side offering documents. 95% of the shares are still hung up. that is a type a listed function of the technology group. they are only listing the bare minimum in shanghai. 3% is going to strategic investors. these are basically our long list of chinese facilities. another 1.3% is restricted for at least another few months. at the end of the day, only about 3.69% of the shares will be available. really, there is not a lot available.
numbers on thehe shanghai stock exchange and it is going to be the second smallest amongst all of the stocks. almost all of the 1500 socks listed on the shanghai stock exchange. even later, when they expire, they will still be the three -- there's more us -- third smallest. alas, they are willing to bid up the price to pay more and more. yvonne: so it is not for your everest re group was it a win-win for beijing than? basically kick the box and keep beijing happy and say, all right, we brought our company to china. soviet get to hold onto 95% of the shares. the cannot control the company all right without a doubt. it is just a token listing in many ways.
theent can say, look at ways we have managed to drag this very important international technology company to one of our stock exchanges. they are a major supplier to apple. -- ang has really try to tiny of these -- taiwanese company is really a boost for them to -- for them. ramy: lots of supply and demand. low float in high demand. them is a stock is what arises in? going to rise is in it? i would say the fia when they opened today in shanghai, i would imagine to see a lot of red on the screen. china will probably have a lot of upside. people in the market are talking 40-fit 60% for stays. -- 40-60% first days.
ramy: welcome back, this is daybreak asia. ramy: i am yvonne man in hong kong. -- yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. higher u.s.ing with interest rates are likely to get a little sympathy from the federal reserve. let's focus on all of this. bring up the chart really quick. a we see in particular when it comes to thailand. we have seen foreign outflows
have been increasing for much of 2018. announce thato joining us now is the extensive interview from bangkok. thank you so much for joining us. we have been talking about this whirlwind here. foreigners are probably more than $2 billion of type equity this quarter. that is the biggest outflow in asia after taiwan. how concerned are you of this capital flight and what is driving? if you look at the outflow from the thai market, you may be wondering what is happening. when you look at emerging markets, you see the century. that is the first thing. the second thing, when you look at the corporate earnings and
share, it is much better than last year. forming -- has been performing quite well. i think that the fundamental is very strong. when you look at all of the support, the liquidy in the market is good today. i think they are doing quite well but it is a global movement and i think the investors into keep in mind that the fundamental is very strong. still, a lot of pressure here when it comes to the central banks. the likes of indonesia and india forced to raise rates.
>> we need to show that the market has been improving significantly since 1997. nowadays, when you look at a new ipo, the market has been coming up with 40 companies per year. the trade value was up more than $2 billion a day. the liquidy is going very big. wethe future, how can maintain this growth and how can we start to attack and bring new ipo listings to thailand. such small projects should be relies in the market and that how we can coordinate
this new change plus, then you need in the capital market and incessant -- investments. ramy: he test on ipo's, what is your outlook for the rest of this year? >> the ipo market in thailand at the moment is doing very well. during the past five years, the thai market has become the largest ipo venue in southeast asia. as an appellation of more than 10 billion additional dollars per year. during the past six years, we are doing quite well. this year, we are on that page as well. however, we think that in the future, we need to start to bring in the small companies and start to think about how we can attract more foreign videos into the market. that would be our plan. an updatented to get as well. two months ago, your predecessor
said that they were talking to chinese exchanges about a possible link. what is the latest on that? i would say that in the future, thai markets need to be linked to outside other countries. at the moment, we are working vietnam in singapore and malaysia. also, we are thinking about once we have a good collaboration here, we need to get out of this area so that we can connect it to the outside. then, our plan could be the physical link or the product linkage. linke moment, us wait to the local into the international market can be either directly gige or product linkage.
we are looking to that. yvonne: we think it will happen in the next 12 months? under product linkage, the linkage could be quicker than the physical linkage. in the next 12 months, we will be working very hard on that. permission for foreign companies to list on type stock exchange has not just for a few years yet, we still have not seen a foreign listing in thailand. what progress has been made on the front? moment, we have listings but most of the parent companies are tied. and withinhave one the next few months, we expect to see more of the four listings in the term of trust and fund in
time and more. we are also working on that. years, younext two will see that. i think i will come back and report on that. out: foreigners have pulled with an $2 billion from tight equities justice quarter. it must be a concern. what is your a look here and what would you say to investors as a don't? certainly, when you look at the outflow. it is quite big. however, when you look at the reaction of the market, you find the opposite. it has actually been doing quite it means that they liquidity in the markets is quite high. even though, the foreign investors are outside the
market. have beeninvestors absorbing those funds and now you can see that the market has been quite steady. i think that is good news. when you look at the number of the first quarter earnings upwth, it has been growing two digits and it has been the direct earnings. in my own opinion, i would tell them investor the when you look at the fundamentals of another country, when you look at the fundamentals of a company, it is very good. before we let you go -- yvonne: talk a little bit more about the reforms you are set to take place at the you have taken this new role as a ceo. how are you going to make it easy or for foreigners trade? >> at the moment, for the
fahrner, the restriction is very low. in the future, the thing that we would like to do is more like reform. we need to get our company to be the sink more and quickly. speak on anyd liquidation regarding the sec and touch on how we can control this flow across the country. for example, how can we make ?hailand become the entry that would be the thing we would certainly like to look into. link, it isay to going to be us with other
bloomberg markets: asia, let's take a quick look at how markets are trading right now. we can see confusion in the closed -- close of the united states. the nikkei is flat. the cosby is down. all the hope that we could break out of this consolidation seems to be fading right now. taiwan as well as, malaysia. singapore stock looks at a gain of about 1/10 of a percent to tech shares are certainly weighing on the markets this morning. ♪ two, down, back up!
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rishaad: regional markets five. -- flat. investors looking ahead to the g7 meeting. it may be the most acrimonious in years with washington blaming its allies for triggering tariffs. more gloom in japan, growth missing estimates in the first quarter. consumption also on the way down. in hong kong, i am rishaad salamat. haidi: i am haidi lun. deal, but to a deservesay it doesn't that second chance and the administration is firi